Who knows what tomorrow will bring? : (Record no. 80229)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 04382nam a22004813a 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 5lnbt49n3gv2m04t
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field SE-LIBR
005 - DATE AND TIME
control field 20221026155455.0
007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field cr ||| |||||
008 - GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 220518s2022 sw |||||om|||o000 ||eng|c
020 ## - ISBN
Cancelled/invalid ISBN 9789150629484
022 ## - ISSN
ISSN 0566-8808
024 7# - OTHER SERIES IDENTIFIER
Standard number or code http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-473030
024 7# - OTHER SERIES IDENTIFIER
Standard number or code urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-473030
024 7# - OTHER SERIES IDENTIFIER
Standard number or code http://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1653075/FULLTEXT01
040 ## - CATALOGUING LIBRARY
Original cataloging library S
Modifying library Sipr
041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE
Language code eng
100 1# - AUTHOR
Personal name Randahl, David
245 10 - TITLE
Title Who knows what tomorrow will bring? :
Medium [electronic resource]
Subtitle four papers on the prediction of contentious politics
260 ## - PUBLICATION DATA
Place of publication Uppsala :
Publisher Uppsala universitet,
Year 2022
300 ## - PAGES ETC
Pages 35 p.
490 1# - SERIES TITLE
Series title Report / Department of Peace and Conflict Research ;
Number 128
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note Additional 4 essays
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note SIP2212
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note Doctor philosophiae
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note degree of Doctor of Philosophy
502 ## - DISSERTATION
Dissertation note Diss. (summary) Uppsala : Uppsala universitet, 2022
520 ## - SUMMARY
Summary, etc In the last decade advances in statistics, computing power, and data collection has led to an increased interest in forecasting within the field of peace and conflict research and to the adoption of a wide range of methodological approaches for making such forecasts. By making use of these more powerful forecasting methods researchers have been able to produce accurate predictions, as well as better inferences, of many different types of contentious politics events and to create operational early warning systems for such events. Adapting these forecasting methods to the social world in which politics and political behavior operate, however, is not without its challenges. This dissertation explores a number of methodological issues and advances in peace and conflict research, both inferential and forecasting oriented, through a series of four papers. In the first paper, I explore trends in democratization and autocratization using dynamic simulation. In Paper II, my co-author and I take aim at the difficulty of modeling and making forecasts with data which contains both excess zeroes and extreme-values. We propose an extreme-value and zero-inflated regression model which we use to replicate a study on the effects of UN peacekeepers on violence against civilians. Paper III explores latent variable modeling by using Markov models to make forecasts for escalation and de-escalation of armed conflicts. In the last paper, I investigate the effects of missing data and imputation techniques on the predictive performance of models. The four papers of the dissertation make several contributions to the growing literature of forecasting within peace and conflict research. First, the dissertation contributes to the methodological aspects of conflict forecasting by developing new statistical tools, Paper II, and adapting tools from other fields to different processes of armed conflict and contentious politics, Papers I & III, as well as by evaluating the practical effects of common choices in data pre-processing on the performance of forecasts in Paper IV. Second, the dissertation contributes to new ways of drawing inferences about conflict processes by anchoring the inferences in the latent state of the conflict processes in Papers II & III, and through the comparison of aggregated simulations to the historical record in Paper I. Lastly, the dissertation makes a substantive contribution to the broader field of peace and conflict research in Papers I & II by contributing to the debate on the waves of democratization and autocratization, and by nuancing the impact of UN Peacekeepers on violence against civilians.
650 #7 - KEYWORD
Keyword social sciences
650 #7 - KEYWORD
Keyword political science
650 #7 - KEYWORD
Keyword peace research
Subdivision conflict research
700 1# - ADDED AUTHOR/EDITOR
Author/Editor Hegre, Håvard
700 1# - ADDED AUTHOR/EDITOR
Author/Editor Geelmuyden Rød, Espen
700 1# - ADDED AUTHOR/EDITOR
Author/Editor Thulin, Måns
700 1# - ADDED AUTHOR/EDITOR
Author/Editor Braumoeller, Bear
710 2# - ADDED INSTITUTION
Institution ViEWS
710 1# - ADDED INSTITUTION
Institution Uppsala universitet.
Subordinate unit Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet
772 08 - LINK TO SERIES
Display text channel record
Record control number vd6k7sz65jh4wq2
830 #0 - AUTHORIZED SERIES TITLE
Authorized title Report / Department of Peace and Conflict Research,
Volume number/sequential designation 128
856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION
URI http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-473030
856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION
URI http://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1653075/FULLTEXT01
Link text Full text
942 ## - ITEM TYPE (KOHA)
Koha item type electronic publication
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Damaged status Not for loan Home library Current library Date acquired Total Checkouts Full call number Acquisition no. Date last seen Koha item type
        SIPRI Library and Documentation SIPRI Library and Documentation 2022-10-26   327ser Uppsala G22/225 2022-10-26 electronic publication