A "new" dynamic in the western hemisphere security environment the Mexican Zetas and other private armies Max G. Manwaring

"September 2009."

A new and dangerous dynamic has been introduced into the Mexican internal security environment. That new dynamic involves the migration of power from traditional state and nonstate adversaries to nontraditional nonstate private military organizations such as the Zetas, enforcer gangs like the Aztecas, Negros, and Polones, and paramilitary triggermen. Moreover, the actions of these irregular nonstate actors tend to be more political-psychological than military, and further move the threat from hard power to soft power solutions. This report examines the macro "what, why, who, how, and so what?" questions concerning the resultant type of conflict that has been and is being fought in Mexico. A useful way to organize these questions is to adopt a matrix approach, with four sets of elements: (1) The Contextual Setting, (the "what?" and beginning "why" questions); (2) The Protagonist's Background, Organization, Operations, Motives, and Linkages (the fundamental "who? why?" and "how" questions); (3) The Strategic-Level Outcomes and Consequences (the basic "so what?" question; and (4) Recommendations that address the salient implications. These various elements are mutually influencing and constitute the political-strategic level cause and effect dynamics of a given case.