TY  - BOOK
AU  - Freier,Nathan
ED  - Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, PKSOI
ED  - US Army War College.
TI  - Known unknowns: unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development
T2  - PKSOI papers
SN  - 158487368X
PY  - 2008///]
CY  - Carlisle, Pa.
PB  - Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute and Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
KW  - warfare
KW  - military strategy
KW  - threat perception
KW  - USA
KW  - wild cards
KW  - strategic surprise
N1  - "November 2008."; "The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations.  The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise.  They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous." -- P. vii
UR  - https://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB890.pdf
ER  -