TY  - BOOK
AU  - Jenkins,Brian Michael
ED  - Rand Corporation
TI  - Al Qaeda in its third decade: irreversible decline or imminent victory? 
T2  - Occasional paper
PY  - 2012///
CY  - Santa Monica, Calif.
PB  - Rand Corporation
KW  - terrorism
KW  - USA
KW  - al-Qaeda
N1  - "Investment in People and Ideas."; sip1208; Includes bibliographical references; Al Qaeda in its third decade : irreversible decline or imminent victory? -- Is Al Qaeda on the ropes or still a serious threat? -- How has Bin Laden's death affected the organization? -- What is the effect of the Arab Spring? -- How much of a threat do homegrown terrorists pose? -- So why does Al Qaeda think victory is imminent? -- What will happen in Afghanistan? -- How will we know when to stop?
N2  - "More than ten years after 9/11, there is still remarkable lack of consensus among analysts' assessments of al Qaeda's current condition and future capabilities. Almost every issue is debated: Whether America has won the operational battle but lost the ideological contest; whether homegrown terrorism is a growing threat; whether maintaining American troops in Afghanistan is essential; whether the United States ought to declare on its own an end to the war on al Qaeda. Part of the debate is driven by political agendas, but the arguments derive from the fact that al Qaeda is many things at once and must be viewed in all of its various dimensions. This essay examines a number of these issues in light of recent developments --- the death of Osama bin Laden, the Arab Spring, and the American withdrawal from Iraq. In each case, it drives toward a bottom line. In the final analysis, it is a personal view."--Publisher's description
UR  - http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2012/RAND_OP362.pdf
ER  -