China's energy insecurity and the South China Sea dispute / James A. Brandenburg [electronic resource]

SIP1211

"USAWC Class of 2011"

"24 March 2011"

China's unprecedented economic growth and modernization have accelerated China's demand for energy resources, especially oil. Recently, China emerged as the second largest consumer of oil behind the United States (US) and now imports over 50 percent of its oil requirement. In fact, analysts estimate China's demand for oil will exceed global production capacity by 2030, possibly sooner. As the global demand for energy rises, China's geo-strategy includes securing access to oil while possibly leveraging the ability to deny access to others. China's "Go Out" economic policy and its mercantilist approach to controlling energy resources combined with aggressive trade agreements that include weapons, advanced technology, and/or loan deals for oil reflect China's growing energy security dilemma. The South China Sea's 7.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as well as extraordinary estimates of oil/natural gas reserves in the heavily disputed Spratly and Paracel Island regions stand to raise the stakes of interested parties including the US. Given China's rise and its territorial claims to not only the islands, but the vast majority of the South China Sea and its resources, it remains unclear whether such claims will become a platform for cooperation or conflict.