000			03116cam a22003257a 4500
001			12532579
003			SE-LIBR
005			20120809144741.0
008			120206s2011 dcu | f000 0 eng c
020			_a158487516X
020			_a9781584875161
040			_aAWC _dAWC _dSipr
041			_aeng
100	1		_aPearl, Jonathan
245	1	0	_aForecasting zero : _bU.S. nuclear history and the low probability of disarmament / _cJonathan Pearl
246	3		_aUS nuclear history and the low probability of disarmament
246	3		_aUnited States nuclear history and the low probability of disarmament
260			_aCarlisle, PA : _bStrategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, _c2011
300			_ax, 57 p. ; _c23 cm.
500			_a"November 2011."
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 41-57).
505	0		_aAmerican abolitionism : new trick or old pony? (1945-91). Limited dissent for a wartime project -- Shaping the post-war world -- Three important shifts move the United States away from disarmament -- From Kennedy to Carter : the rise of arms control -- A Reagan-era rebirth for disarmament -- Shaping a new world order, or shaped by it? : from Reykjavik to rogue states. New risks and uncertain priorities in the post-Cold War world (1991-2001) -- Disarmament continues its retreat (2001-09) -- A new center or a return to normalcy? : the four horsemen ride to town -- Forecasting the U.S. nuclear future : yes we can (eventually?). The Obama administration : pledges and actions -- Continuity, not revolution -- Guarding your optimism : conceptual roadblocks to disarmament -- Guarding your optimism : structural roadblocks to disarmament -- Conclusion.
520			_aA vigorous debate is occurring among American elites with respect to whether and when the United States should relinquish its nuclear weapons. Bolstering hopes for tangible results is that a U.S. President is again publicly and forcefully supporting disarmament. While this debate, which addresses both technical and political factors related to abolition, may be the most serious one of its kind since the dawn of the nuclear age, the future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy remains uncertain. The general approach advanced today in U.S. policy circles largely hews, after all, to the logic of the past 65 years: arms control and nonproliferation now, disarmament at an undetermined time in the future. Moreover, several conceptual and strategic barriers continue to block serious progress toward U.S. disarmament. By situating the current pro-disarmament rhetoric in this larger historical and strategic context, this monograph argues that there is reason to doubt whether the current push for disarmament will produce meaningful and lasting results.
650		7	_anuclear weapons _xnonproliferation _xnuclear arms control _xhistory _xgovernment _xnuclear disarmament _xtreaties _zUSA
653			_aforecasting
710	2		_aUS Army War College. _bStrategic Studies Institute, SSI
852			_h341.67 Pearl
856	4	1	_uhttp://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=1092
942			_cMONO
999			_c76976 _d76976